Not much has changed since the conference championship odds were released last Sunday night. The Green Bay Packers remain a 3.5-point favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC Championship game. The Kansas City Chiefs are now a 3.5-point favorite over the Buffal Bills in the AFC Championship game after sitting at -3 for much of the week.
Both Sunday, Jan. 24 games have totals nearly unchanged despite the colder conditions. The over/under is 52 in the Packers and Bucs game while plenty of scoring is also expected in the Chiefs and Bills contest with an over/under of 54.5.
Betting is brisk on these two games with a final push in the final day leading up to kickoff. John Murray, Director of Race and Sports at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas chipped-in his thoughts to the Vegas Stats & Information Network (VSiN).
“I think the NFC championship could be the highest- volume non-Super Bowl game ever,” Murray said. “It’s Brady versus Rodgers at Lambeau Field. You couldn’t ask for a bigger game. It will be a massive handle through the roof.”
NFL Conference Championship Market Report
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes cleared the NFL’s concussion protocol Friday, and he’ll play after getting knocked out of last week’s playoff game.
Johnny Avello, Director of Race and Sports Operations at DraftKings, sent me some comments and notes ahead of the two big games.
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“On the news of Mahomes being eligible, we moved the Chiefs from -3 to -3 1/2. We were a little heavy on the Chiefs before the move and I expect there will be continuous KC money on the point spread. We are seeing Bills play on the Moneyline at +155.”
Avello added comments on the Packers and Buccaneers.
“It’s been a steady stream of Green Bay money up to this point. But I believe Bucs supporters will get involved on the Moneyline at +160 leading up to game time.”
More than 70% of the spread bets are on the Packers at DraftKings, and greater than 75% of the totals bets are on the OVER, which is up a point to 52. The Bills have taken the highest percentage of moneyline bets with nearly 65% of both the bets and money (handle) betting on Buffalo to beat Kansas City.
Along with all the pre-game wagering, bettors enjoy the popular prop bets that are offered. Player props draw more interest than ever, and especially on the stars like Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. The likely 2020 league MVP plays his first conference championship game at Lambeau Field.
And if the emotions aren’t high enough, the Packers will play just days after the passing of former Green Bay GM Ted Thompson, who made Rodgers his first draft pick in 2005.
Sports Betting Goes Live in Michigan and Virginia
Both Virginia and Michigan launched legal sports betting in the past few days, and fans and bettors in those states can bet on the NFL Conference Championship games. DraftKings joins other operators in offering an odds boost and incentive for fans to get in the game and bet on some of the star players as well.
DraftKings has some special NFL Conference Championship promotions.
- Live Bet Boost – Get a 50% Live Profit Boost
- Parlay Boost – Get a 25% Profit Boost on a 2-leg parlay
- QB Special Odds Boost – Player to have Most Passing Yards or Most Touchdowns: Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady
NFL Championship game history and trends from Playbook Sports show that home teams in this round are 55-25 and 45-34-1 Against the Spread (ATS) since the 1980 season. That includes 32-12 SU and 29-15 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 8 points.
But with limited fans in the stands and less home field advantage, will the Packers and Chiefs prevail? Tampa Bay has the biggest obstacle to overcome beyond facing the NFC’s top team and best quarterback. The Buccaneers are one win away from becoming the first team to play the Super Bowl at its home stadium. Tampa Bay is also playing their third straight playoff road game, and fifth road contest in the last six weeks. Add in the freezing temperatures near 28 degrees and a 60 percent chance of snow, and the Buccaneers have their toughest test of the season.
I rolled with the Packers prior to the start of the playoffs with a Super Bowl futures bet, and I’m betting on Green Bay to advance to Super Bowl LV.
You can bet on it.